Imagine how many darts Boise State football players, coaches, and fans have thrown this season at pictures of the University of Utah's campus, President Michael K. Young, Athletics Director and Special Assistant to the President Chris Hill, and head football coach Kyle Whittingham. Why?
It started in June of 2010, when Boise State thought its invite to the Mountain West conference was a real promotion, with real prospects of the new conference becoming a BCS AQ league as early as 2013. At the time, the MWC had heavyweights Utah, TCU, and BYU. That trio, with newbie Boise State and tough Air Force, meant the MWC had almost a 95% chance of replacing the Big East as the sixth BCS AQ conference when the NCAA did its four-year review, despite the NCAA's inherent East Coast/Midwest/Southeast bias.
What happened next? No sooner had Boise State agreed to join the MWC than Utah agreed to join the Pac-10/12. It took the Utah board and president about three milliseconds to agree to bolt the MWC and leave behind traditional arch-rival BYU and seven other schools to fend for themselves. Of course, the move was motivated by ambition, status, and money: looking out for Number One. Upgrading, perceived or actual, is in the DNA of most individuals and institutions.
Utah's move set the wheels in motion. BYU's pride was damaged, so it expedited its move for independence since no BCS AQ conference wanted them at the time. TCU was steamed at the Utah schools, particularly BYU, for their moves had devalued the Mountain West. Thus, they decided to accept the first BCS AQ conference offer presented, which in fact came from the geographically unsuitable Big East. Of course, both moves were precipitated by the prospect of economic gain.
Boise State was now joining a conference that would lack Utah and BYU in 2011 and TCU in 2012. The MWC's chances to replace the Big East as a BCS AQ conference were severely diminished, if not permanently derailed. Reason one for the darts.
In the spring of 2011, Utah took another action that injured Boise State. The Utes (specifically, the A.D. Chris Hill) dropped the Broncos from their 2011 schedule. It appeared to them that they no longer needed Boise State on the schedule to bolster its strength of schedule and potential BCS ranking due to its new Pac-12 schedule loaded with tough opponents.
In Utah's defense, they couldn't drop BYU due to political pressure and "tradition." However, they could have dropped Pittsburgh. They didn't. Instead, the Utes replaced Boise State with Division 1-AA cupcake Montana State (in keeping with most BCS AQ conference schools who schedule at least one 1-AA formal scrimmage to tweak tactics and inflate statistics).
What else motivated Utah to remove Boise State from the 2011 schedule? The Utes were haunted by the pounding they took last December at the hands of the Broncos in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, where the final score read 26-3. For Boise State, losing Utah from the WAC-infested lightweight schedule they were stuck with was a devastating blow for their own strength of schedule and 2011 BCS ranking. Reason two for the darts.
That takes us to the third injury: Utah's play this year. The Utes have lost their first four Pac-12 conference games and has an overall record of 3-4 after getting pummeled by a talented but mediocre Cal team last weekend. What does that have to do with Boise State? Plenty.
While there have already been many schools switching conferences, Utah was the first non-AQ conference school to switch to a BCS AQ power conference. Hence, all eyes were on Salt Lake City. Why? The argument commonly made by pro-BCS advocates is that schools like Boise State, TCU, and pre-2011 Utah don't deserve a shot at the BCS title game even if they go undefeated, because they play in easier conferences where only every third or fourth game is competitive, not every game as is the case in the BCS AQ leagues.
The pro-BCS people would argue that a weekly grind against tough competition wears down on team freshness, depth charts, and players' psyches. The anti-BCS faction argues that the non-AQ schools can't help the poor schedules they were given, and if they are undefeated, they deserve a title shot before a BCS AQ league school with one or two losses.
Utah's performance so far this year has played right into the hands of the pro-BCS AQ conference group. In the first six games, Utah's losses were the results of poor second halves. In the seventh game, they were blown out from the get-go. Such a pattern indicates poor depth: poor depth as each game proceeds into the latter quarters, and worse depth as the conference season wears on into the latter games. Look at quarterback: Utah's Jordan Wynn is lost for the season, and Wynn's backup is a transfer from Nebraska-Omaha who didn't even join the squad until the summer. Where's the depth? At a BCS AQ school, each position needs to be three deep if a team hopes to be successful.
Looking at the big picture, Boise State's slim margin of victory over Air Force last Saturday won't cost it as many votes as Utah's throttling at the hands of a .500 Cal-Berkeley team. Intelligent observers know Boise State's frontline players are as gifted (or in the case of Kellen Moore, more gifted) as any team's in the Bowl Subdivision. With only Georgia and TCU on the schedule as tough opponents this year, the Broncos have the luxury of resting front-liners and the luck of having front-liners go against opponents incapable of wearing them down as fast. Reason three for the darts.
It goes without saying that Boise State isn't above taking advantage of its own athletic reputation and excellence. The Broncos left the WAC behind for greener pastures. They will undoubtedly leave the Mountain West behind for a BCS AQ conference if a stable one (translation: anybody but the Big East) extends an offer. Then again, the Big East might implode, and the MWC-Conference USA hybrid could become the sixth BCS AQ conference, which ironically would lead BYU right back into the fold. For Boise State's sake, one can only hope.
In the short term, Boise State does have its best shot at a title game this year, since the BCS officials have to be aware of executive and legislative branch scrutiny of discrimination practiced against non-AQ conference schools. After all, the bowl committees do not wish to lose their cash cows to a cursed playoff system.
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