The NFL lockout appears to be entering its last days, since both sides (players and owners) have great incentive to complete the deal, a new CBA. The owners will lose close to one billion dollars if the exhibition/preseason games are not played. The league will lose over nine billion dollars if the entire season is lost.
The NFL is the most popular spectator sport in the USA. All 32 NFL teams are flush, thanks in large part to the revenue sharing policy which allows small-market teams not only to be competitive, but to win the Super Bowl (see Green Bay). Due to the sport's popularity, there is no shortage of young talent available in the annual draft, for a high percentage of young athletes play the sport for at least three years in the NFL's farm system: college football.
The NFL lockout should end by July 15. As a goodwill gesture, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell spoke at the NFL rookies' orientation in Florida this week. This year's orientation was sponsored by the NFLPA. The decertified union invited Goodell to speak, and he accepted the offer.
Sure, there is a small group of hard-line owners who would prefer to hold out until the players' buckled, but the group is too small, and cooler heads will prevail. When the pie is so huge, does it really matter if certain concessions are made by each side for the other to save face?
The only troubling development in the NFL labor strife concerns the divisive issue of the franchise tag. Overpaid quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are against franchise labels because it restricts their movement and salary. The superstars want even larger slices of the pie at the expense of midlevel veterans. This selfishness, now exposed, may lead to some missed blocks in the fall. Or not.
The NBA lockout, which started last night, will follow a different scenario. It has to. The underlying economic facts are dissimilar. Sure, the ratings for this year's title series were up. Sure, the table was set by the league for LeBron & Co. to win their first championship, but Dallas stole it in six games, allegedly revealing the integrity of the league. But three things happened. First, LeBron choked. Second, Miami's lack of a strong post presence was exposed by the Mavericks' great Tyson Chandler. Third, Miami's lack of consistent point guard play was exposed by the Mavericks' wiley veteran Jason Kidd and sparkplug-in-short-spurts Jose Barea. A few miraculous three-point bombs from Jason Terry didn't hurt, either. Dirk was Dirk and Wade was Wade.
Ratings were up not to watch a coronation of King James; ratings were up to watch a team most people love to hate and see lose. Could Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban have paid the officiating crew off in a sum that made what was coming from the league/network/major advertisers alliance look like small change? Sure, but to expound upon such a theory would label one as a conspiracy obsessive.
Speaking of losers, 22 of the 30 NBA teams lose money. Owners of the successful franchises want the players to pay for the small-market teams' share of revenue sharing. Smart. The players want the big-market profitable teams to split the profits with the small-market teams to create revenue sharing. The other major issues are average player salary and hard vs. soft salary caps. The owners want the players to give back a massive sum: over one-half billion dollars. The players have offered to compromise, but not nearly enough.
Due to the greed of the few big-market profitable teams that didn't effectuate a truer revenue sharing plan with the last CBA, those owners now do not have the votes to negotiate a quick settlement. For owners of franchises losing money under the current business plan, a lockout is profitable. A lockout means a smaller loss than playing. A majority of owners will sit this one out and wait until major concessions are offered by the players and/or the major-market profitable teams to reduce player salaries, guaranteed salaries, and to boost revenue sharing closer to the NFL model.
The other distinction between the NFL lockout and the NBA lockout concerns their respective drafts. The NFL had a great draft as usual, full of talented, experienced players. The NBA had a lean draft, filled with somewhat talented non-superstars with far less experience for the most part, thanks to the NBA's short-sighted raid-the-NCAA policy of allowing 19-year-olds to be drafted.
Because so many prep superstars are pampered from age 12 on in America, most do not take the time or have the discipline to learn all of the fundamentals. Perhaps that explains why so many international players were drafted this year: most are less athletic than their American counterparts, but they are more coachable and have a better handle on fundamentals.
Nowitzki's success in this year's finals may have also influenced the scouts and GM's. Obviously, nobody was paying attention to Stojakovich's lack of defense and rebounding that led to his benching in the same series, Peja being another player brought up on Euroball.
What was the problem with the NBA draft that has direct repercussions on the labor dispute? There were no Michael Jordans taken by bad teams. There were some players who might turn out to be good NBA journeymen. But no players were taken that should become NBA superstars. That's still a roll of the dice since most drafted, international and domestic, are too young to tell. Therefore, the small-market teams left draft night no closer to a title than when they arrived.
The lowly Sacramento Kings took Jimmer Fredette, an affable sharpshooter and consensus college player of the year. He's athletic like Steve Nash is athletic. He plays defense like Nash plays D. The last time the Kings took a short white guy who made national headlines, his name was Bobby Hurley. How did that turn out? One thing is certain: Fredette's addition has provided some short-term season ticket sales action.
Teams need fannies in the seats more than wins. That should illustrate the desperate times of small-market teams.
In sum, expect the NFL to settle soon. Expect the NBA to keep a lockout for the better part of a year. At least.
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